Estimation of the serial interval and basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and three other countries: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.
Identifieur interne : 000205 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000204; suivant : 000206Estimation of the serial interval and basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and three other countries: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.
Auteurs : Mohammad Aghaali [Iran] ; Goodarz Kolifarhood [Iran] ; Roya Nikbakht [Iran] ; Hossein Mozafar Saadati [Iran] ; Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari [Iran]Source :
- Transboundary and emerging diseases [ 1865-1682 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 was first reported from China, and on 19 February 2020, the first case was confirmed in Qom, Iran. The basic reproduction number (R0 ) of infection is variable in different populations and periods. This study aimed to estimate the R0 of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and compare it with that in other countries. For estimation of the serial interval, we used data of the 51 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their 318 close contacts in Qom, Iran. The number of confirmed cases daily in the early phase of the outbreak and estimated serial interval were used for R0 estimation. We used the time-varying method as a method with the least bias to estimate R0 in Qom, Iran, and in China, Italy and South Korea. The serial interval was estimated with a gamma distribution, a mean of 4.55 days and a standard deviation of 3.30 days for the COVID-19 epidemic based on Qom data. The R0 in this study was estimated to be between 2 and 3 in Qom. Of the four countries studied, the lowest R0 was estimated in South Korea (1.5-2) and the highest in Iran (4-5). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that R0 is sensitive to the applied mean generation time. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to estimate R0 in Qom. To control the epidemic, the reproduction number should be reduced by decreasing the contact rate, decreasing the transmission probability and decreasing the duration of the infectious period.
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13656
PubMed: 32473049
PubMed Central: PMC7300937
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Iran.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, School of Health, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qom</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kolifarhood, Goodarz" sort="Kolifarhood, Goodarz" uniqKey="Kolifarhood G" first="Goodarz" last="Kolifarhood">Goodarz Kolifarhood</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health & Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health & Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tehran</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Student Research Committee, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country><wicri:regionArea>Student Research Committee, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tehran</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nikbakht, Roya" sort="Nikbakht, Roya" uniqKey="Nikbakht R" first="Roya" last="Nikbakht">Roya Nikbakht</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Sari</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Saadati, Hossein Mozafar" sort="Saadati, Hossein Mozafar" uniqKey="Saadati H" first="Hossein Mozafar" last="Saadati">Hossein Mozafar Saadati</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health & Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health & Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tehran</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hashemi Nazari, Seyed Saeed" sort="Hashemi Nazari, Seyed Saeed" uniqKey="Hashemi Nazari S" first="Seyed Saeed" last="Hashemi Nazari">Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country><wicri:regionArea>Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tehran</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Transboundary and emerging diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1865-1682</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The outbreak of COVID-19 was first reported from China, and on 19 February 2020, the first case was confirmed in Qom, Iran. The basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub> ) of infection is variable in different populations and periods. This study aimed to estimate the R<sub>0</sub> of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and compare it with that in other countries. For estimation of the serial interval, we used data of the 51 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their 318 close contacts in Qom, Iran. The number of confirmed cases daily in the early phase of the outbreak and estimated serial interval were used for R<sub>0</sub> estimation. We used the time-varying method as a method with the least bias to estimate R<sub>0</sub> in Qom, Iran, and in China, Italy and South Korea. The serial interval was estimated with a gamma distribution, a mean of 4.55 days and a standard deviation of 3.30 days for the COVID-19 epidemic based on Qom data. The R<sub>0</sub> in this study was estimated to be between 2 and 3 in Qom. Of the four countries studied, the lowest R<sub>0</sub> was estimated in South Korea (1.5-2) and the highest in Iran (4-5). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that R<sub>0</sub> is sensitive to the applied mean generation time. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to estimate R<sub>0</sub> in Qom. To control the epidemic, the reproduction number should be reduced by decreasing the contact rate, decreasing the transmission probability and decreasing the duration of the infectious period.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32473049</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>20</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1865-1682</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>May</Month><Day>30</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Transboundary and emerging diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Transbound Emerg Dis</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimation of the serial interval and basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and three other countries: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/tbed.13656</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The outbreak of COVID-19 was first reported from China, and on 19 February 2020, the first case was confirmed in Qom, Iran. The basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub> ) of infection is variable in different populations and periods. This study aimed to estimate the R<sub>0</sub> of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and compare it with that in other countries. For estimation of the serial interval, we used data of the 51 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their 318 close contacts in Qom, Iran. The number of confirmed cases daily in the early phase of the outbreak and estimated serial interval were used for R<sub>0</sub> estimation. We used the time-varying method as a method with the least bias to estimate R<sub>0</sub> in Qom, Iran, and in China, Italy and South Korea. The serial interval was estimated with a gamma distribution, a mean of 4.55 days and a standard deviation of 3.30 days for the COVID-19 epidemic based on Qom data. The R<sub>0</sub> in this study was estimated to be between 2 and 3 in Qom. Of the four countries studied, the lowest R<sub>0</sub> was estimated in South Korea (1.5-2) and the highest in Iran (4-5). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that R<sub>0</sub> is sensitive to the applied mean generation time. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to estimate R<sub>0</sub> in Qom. To control the epidemic, the reproduction number should be reduced by decreasing the contact rate, decreasing the transmission probability and decreasing the duration of the infectious period.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Aghaali</LastName><ForeName>Mohammad</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, School of Health, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kolifarhood</LastName><ForeName>Goodarz</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health & Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Student Research Committee, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nikbakht</LastName><ForeName>Roya</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Saadati</LastName><ForeName>Hossein Mozafar</ForeName><Initials>HM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health & Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hashemi Nazari</LastName><ForeName>Seyed Saeed</ForeName><Initials>SS</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0883-3408</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>1259</GrantID><Agency>Qom University of Medical Sciences</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>30</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Germany</Country><MedlineTA>Transbound Emerg Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101319538</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1865-1674</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">basic reproduction number</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">disease outbreaks</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">pandemics</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>06</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>21</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>25</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>31</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>31</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>31</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32473049</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/tbed.13656</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7300937</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Title>REFERENCES</Title><Reference><Citation>Anderson, R. 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International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 92, 214-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050</Citation></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Iran</li></country></list><tree><country name="Iran"><noRegion><name sortKey="Aghaali, Mohammad" sort="Aghaali, Mohammad" uniqKey="Aghaali M" first="Mohammad" last="Aghaali">Mohammad Aghaali</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Hashemi Nazari, Seyed Saeed" sort="Hashemi Nazari, Seyed Saeed" uniqKey="Hashemi Nazari S" first="Seyed Saeed" last="Hashemi Nazari">Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari</name><name sortKey="Kolifarhood, Goodarz" sort="Kolifarhood, Goodarz" uniqKey="Kolifarhood G" first="Goodarz" last="Kolifarhood">Goodarz Kolifarhood</name><name sortKey="Kolifarhood, Goodarz" sort="Kolifarhood, Goodarz" uniqKey="Kolifarhood G" first="Goodarz" last="Kolifarhood">Goodarz Kolifarhood</name><name sortKey="Nikbakht, Roya" sort="Nikbakht, Roya" uniqKey="Nikbakht R" first="Roya" last="Nikbakht">Roya Nikbakht</name><name sortKey="Saadati, Hossein Mozafar" sort="Saadati, Hossein Mozafar" uniqKey="Saadati H" first="Hossein Mozafar" last="Saadati">Hossein Mozafar Saadati</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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